On the surface, the Twins and Marlins trade for Luis Arraez (25) and Pablo Lopez (26) looks pretty clean cut. Minnesota getting young and controllable Starting Pitching for a young and controllable Infielder. Along with Lopez, Miami also sent two young Prospects; Jose Salas (19), an Infielder who was immediately assigned to the Twins High-A affiliate, as well as 17 year old Outfielder, Byron Chourio whom the Twins sent to their Dominic Summer League affiliate.
After looking at these prospects’ names and ages, we have to take a deep dive into the marquee names in this trade, starting with Luis Arraez. It was only a short few months ago when Arraez grabbed the Batting Title away from Aaron Judge in the American League, as well as snagging a Silver Slugger award. Now, this is by no means me saying that Luis Arraez is the type of hitter that Aaron Judge is. No, that couldn’t be further from the truth. They are two very different hitters, and come to the plate with different goals, different results. But, narrowing down the field of comparisons from all of baseball to just Second Baseman, where Arraez played for the majority of his time in Minnesota, we have quite the surprising results. The question is, did the Miami Marlins steal the best hitting Infielder from Minnesota for what may turn out to be just an average, at best, Starting Pitcher?
What we can see from your standard numbers, and StatCast, is that Pablo Lopez is not the “average” Pitcher that he may seem to be. Sure, sure, he was 10-10 last season, but he also had 32 Starts and threw 180 Innings, racking up 174K. In the year prior, he had 20 Starts and went 5-5 in just over 100 Innings thrown, with 115K. In the last three seasons, Lopez has had an above average ERA+ of 133, or 33% better than the average Starter with a good 3.26 ERA from 2020-2022. He also gets hitters to chase his offspeed pitches, or roll over on them with weak contact. His five pitch arsenal makes up for the mid-90’s Fastball (which he may be relying on a little too much), so I think Lopez will slot in just fine with the Minnesota rotation, and you’ll see his numbers rise as far as Wins go, with a stronger Offense and better Defense. The guess here is that Pablo comes into himself during his mid 20’s, and breaks out, or, if he doesn’t, one or both of the Prospects that they received will make up for Arraez’ bat.
And speaking of Luis Arraez’ bat, it is ridiculous, if you didn’t know that already. This is a guy that is without a doubt, no argument, the most underrated hitter among all Second Basemen in the Majors. With Arraez, the Marlins get an instant injection of bat to ball skill, and the ability to put the ball just about anywhere he wants to on the field. If you look at his spray chart for the last season, there is almost nowhere on the field that he didn’t have a hit. That brings me to my next point. Not only is Luis Arraez the best hitting Second Basemen since coming up in 2019, he also has gap power, putting up 31 Doubles last season. Now, he won’t ever be a 30-30 hitter, but you can expect a .300 Average almost every season from Arraez along with a .350 or higher On-Base Percentage. The guy can straight hit like a monster, and if slotted second, maybe fifth in the lineup, will be able to drive in a lot of runs for the offense starved Marlins. If the game has become about homeruns, hitting the ball as far as you can and as hard as you can, Luis Arraez didn’t get the memo. He has a Launch Angle that’s well below the MLB average over his career, along with below average Max EV, and very low K%. The downside of this may be, however, his glove. If he were a Gold Glove caliber player, he would be a top 10, or even top 5 Second Baseman, but, the Marlins chose to go with offense over defense with this trade, just like the Twins chose to go with future value over current value. If you bring up all of the current (and Free Agent) Second Baseman who have played since 2019, Luis Arraez only sits at #18 overall if you go with fWAR overall. But switching things around, all of a sudden, he becomes #1 in the Majors. Strikeout Percentage? He is the #1. Batting Average? He’s the best at it, ten points ahead of Jeff McNeil and a whopping thirty ahead of Jose Altuve. What about his On-Base? Tops in baseball, again just ahead of McNeil. Unfortunately, you won’t be seeing Arraez winning any Gold Gloves in the near future. He doesn’t have the defensive capabilities to do so. He tends to play back, very close to the outfield grass, so he has an extra split second to react to balls hit his way.
For now, I would personally say that the Marlins got the “sure thing” in this trade, while the Twins have that Pitcher who has been slowly rising, and could ultimately become a number two in the rotation. Both, however, have the promise of All Stars multiple times, as Arraez already grabbed his first appearance in 2022. If you’ve read this far into the article, I have a little bit of news for you, Luis Arraez will most likely not be playing Second for the Marlins, that is still Jazz Chisholm’s position. Watch out for him manning First in 2023.
