If you haven’t already heard, the San Diego Padres and Yu Darvish have come to an agreement on a 6-year extension for a total of $108M through 2028. If you need a refresher, the Starting Pitcher from Japan is about to go into his age-36 season, meaning that he is signed until 2028, when he turns 42. From a dollar standpoint, you’re “only” looking at AAV of $18M for six years. But digging deeper into the contract details, we find that that it is heavily front loaded, with Darvish receiving $80M through the 2023-26 seasons, and then finishing off the contract with $14M for each season in 2027 and 2028. He’s getting around $25M, a sizeable bump in comparison to the $18M that he was set to make in the final year of another six year extension that he had signed with the Cubs back in 2018.
Joel Wolfe, Yu Darvish’s agent, has been superb in talking teams into committing to his client. This is now the third six year pact that Darvish has signed with a team, one with the Rangers, Cubs, and now Padres. They have each been fairly good in dollar amount, going from 6-years for $60M, to $126M, and now $108M. To go along with the amount of years and dollars, he has the luxury of a no-trade clause, as well. So the Padres have clearly pushed in all of their chips, extending Musgrove this last August for 5 years and now Darvish for 6 years. It looks as though the Padres are betting on the fact that Yu Darvish will age a little better than Snell will, even if there’s an age gap of six years.
The numbers go to show that Darvish, even in his “advanced” age for a ballplayer, has been more reliable than Blake Snell. Nobody can ever take away the amazing Cy Young 2018 season that Snell had with leading the league in Wins, ERA, and other stats. But if we look at recent history, meaning 2021-22, Darvish has over 100 innings pitched on Snell. This only comes with nine more Games Started and an ever so slightly lower ERA, but he also has more Strikeouts and less Walks. The decision to go with the 10 year veteran does seem to be a little bit perplexing, but when you look deeper into the statistics, the edge goes to Darvish just barely, and we’ll see if it pays out for the Padres as they go into the 2023 season with a potent offense and a strong rotation.
