To trade, or not to trade. That is all that everyone can talk about, it seems. What team will Ohtani go to? Will he even be traded? Does the recent surge for the Angels change the front office’s thinking? Will he even come back to Anaheim in Free Agency? Will the Angels even be able to afford him in Free Agency? We’ll talk about all of these things and more.
The Angels are currently on a 4-game win streak, about to play the second of three games against the Pittsburgh Pirates. They unfortunately just had to scratch their everyday shortstop, and one of their star rookies in Zach Neto last minute with lower back discomfort. You may be asking, “What does this have to do with Shohei Ohtani?” Well, the Angels are 36-26 when Neto plays in 2023, and with Andrew Velazquez, his replacement for now, they are only 11-13. If Neto is out for more than a day, and the Angels start to skid, the landscape in the front office may change dramatically as far as Ohtani’s situation goes. If, however, he is healthy enough to play the finale against Pittsburgh, and the Angels take at least one of these last two games, they’ll have matched their best record through 100 games since 2019, which was also 51-49, if they sweep Pittsburgh and end up 52-48, it’ll be their best record through 100 games since before 2017, before Shohei Ohtani joined the team.
With this in mind, going either 50-50, 51-49, or 52-48, the Angels have a day off on Monday before flying to Detroit, facing the Tigers in a three game series that they should at least win two of. After that is the real test, a three game series against the Toronto Blue Jays, which ends on July 30th. The Angels could have a record of 58-48, which should be good enough for the last Wild Card spot in the American League, but I highly doubt they’ll go on a eight game winning streak starting tonight, which’ll make their total current win streak an astounding twelve games, which they’ve never done in franchise history. Even if they just play .500 ball, and win four of the next eight, a 54-52 record would not have them in a Wild Card spot with Toronto, New York, and Boston ahead of them going into this second game against Pittsburgh.
So, with the Zach Neto situation explained, possible record going into the end of July, we come to Shohei Ohtani. With a 58-48 record and possible WC position, the Angels are forced to look at their roster and consider their chances in the final 46 games of the season. Do they risk falling out of playoff contention with teams like Toronto and New York on their heels, or do they make one of the biggest trades in MLB history? Even if they make the playoffs, what are their chances of winning it all? In reality, they could very well be out in the first round, making it to the ALDS is probably the best they could hope for. Shohei Ohtani wants to be on a consistent winner and playoff contender, but he also wants to stay on the West Coast.
If the Angels (Arte Moreno, mainly) don’t want to trade Ohtani, and end up losing a playoff spot AND him in Free Agency, Moreno will solidify his legacy as one of the greediest owners in MLB history. As much as it hurts to come to terms with, if the Angels aren’t in a playoff position after the Blue Jay series, Ohtani should be traded. It’ll be one of the biggest prospect packages for a four month rental in history, but the Angels have big needs at Third, Second, in their Rotation, and in the Bullpen.
The Angels and the right trade partner could help fill some holes with top 100 prospects as well as MLB ready players for Shohei. I say, even if the Angels are in playoff contention, Ohtani should be traded. He’s been dealing with finger/blister issues the last three starts that he has had, and if you look at his last dozen starts compared to his first handful, they look like any other two or three Starter’s numbers. The major selling point is the fact that he may well hit 60 home runs in the season. Another is, with the right trade partner, a wealthy one, the Angels could unload dead weight and a massive contract in Anthony Rendon, assuming he doesn’t veto the trade. The New York Yankees could possibly do so just so they don’t have to give up as many prospects as the Angels reportedly are asking for, eating a $114M contract. Another way to move Shohei without having to give up the farm is to send cash, a lot of it, to the Angels, along with a few good prospects. The Angels may very well consider cutting ties with Rendon like they have with Upton and Pujols in recent years. The cash will help soften that blow. Any way you look at it, it’s a tough situation for the Angels front office, and owner. But if you’re looking to create a team that is a winner in the future, you move on from Ohtani and build around the young core players in Neto, O’Hoppe, and Moniak.
