I wanted to start this piece off by thanking all of the readers, and CEO of DJAWN.com, Jaime Cook. Without you all, I wouldn’t have such an amazing platform to post my opinions and do my reporting on. This one is for the readers!
I’ll be doing a career review of four amazing Outfielders, two from each league. Each player has stayed in the league that they debuted in, and may very well retire in those respective leagues. I’ll be going over the shoo-in players of Mike Trout and Bryce Harper, an interesting story all in itself. Then we’ll follow up with Bellinger and Judge, who both debuted a handful of years after the prior named athletes. All four are amazing in their own right, having accomplished many things to be proud of. My fear is that the Hall Of Fame for the MLB may be watered down with players that fall in the “Hall Of Very Good” category, and I won’t hold back on whether or not any of these players are on track to be one of those kind of players. As you’ll note, this review is based soley on offensive numbers, and rWAR from Baseball-reference’s website. Defense obviously plays a part in one’s case for the HOF, but might be better focused on with different players or in a different position. As important as Outfielders are, it would only take up so much more space to get down to the specifics of each player.
Your Average HOF Player
Your average Hall of Famer starts their career at 21, and ends it at around 39, playing about 18 seasons. They play in over 2,100 games and have over 2,400 hits, as well as have 9,000 plate appearances and almost 8,000 at bats. They have about 1,600 Singles, 400 Doubles, 100 Triples, and 200 Homers. They also steal around 230 bases and Walk nearly 900 times. They carry a lifetime batting average of .303 and on-base percentage of .376 while slugging .461 for an OPS of .837 which gives them an OPS+ of 128. They also have a FanGraphs WAR (fWAR) of 72.2 and Baseball-Reference WAR (rWAR) of 63.2 over their career. I will be using baseball-reference for stats, and thus their rWAR for players in this piece. Of course, that’s just your average Hall of Famer. Some players will have a significantly higher count in certain departments such as Hits, Home runs, or Steals. WAR is just a mathematical equation that gives a player’s season a value (positive or negative). We will see players with WAR well above the “Average HOF Player” and those who are far from it.
Mike Trout vs Bryce Harper
Mike Trout, freshly turned 32 years old, is the oldest of this group. He also eclipses many of the average HOF numbers, such as his rWAR currently sitting at 85.3, HR with 368, OPS sitting at .994, and the list goes on. Mind you, this is in his 13th season, and with 1488 Games played. He also debuted as a teenager at 19 with a short stint in 2011, and is due to finish out his contract in his age 38 season in 2030. If he successfully finishes out that contract, he’ll have played longer than your “average” HOF player at 20 seasons in the Majors. Even though he has only play in about 65% of games since the beginning of 2012, his true season, he will have accomplished more than enough by the end of this season, let alone seven more seasons, to be a HOF player. To date, he already has eleven All Star selections, three American League MVP awards, nine Silver Slugger awards, all to go with his 2012 AL ROY award. One thing that hasn’t been brought up as a topic is position very often for Mike Trout. But, unfortunately, just like all athletes, there is a decline physically, and he may one day have to make that choice of becoming a daily Rightfielder, yielding his Centerfield spot to someone else. There’s also the possibility of converting to First Base, or even Designated Hitter.
Bryce Harper debuted in 2012 at the age of 19, snagging the NL ROY with the Nationals, and is currently 30 years old and change. Although he has swapped jerseys for Philly red and white, he has had much more in terms of playoff experience with both of his teams than Trout has with his one. Both of them have multiple MVP awards (Harper with two, Trout with three), Silver Slugger awards, and All Star selections. The interesting thing about Bryce’s career is the change in position after Tommy John surgery in the offseason before the 2023 season began, pushing him to First and Designated Hitter exclusively. It’s not as if Harper couldn’t play in the Outfield, it’s that he shouldn’t for the sake of his health, and trust me, the Phillies brass do not want their money to go to waste if Harper were to have a career ending injury. That’s where things get interesting as far as our “average hall of fame player” and Harpers’ numbers. He currently sits with an rWAR of 43.9, a full 40 points shorter of Mike Trout’s. Why is that? He’s played in 1461 Games, just 27 shy of Trout. But he has only 291 HR, an OPS of .907, a batting average of .281 to Trout’s .301, so on and so forth. But, with the possible longevity of his career with a contract running through 2031 in jeopardy, Harper should reach milestones that will send him to the HOF in the future, and soon. Taking the defensive hit of only playing First or being a Designated Hitter for the latter part of his career may actually be to Bryce’s benefit, as it will hopefully put less stress on his body.
Cody Bellinger vs Aaron Judge
With our shoo-in HOF players out of the way, we have two players to look at who could possibly make the HOF in several years (we’re talking decades, here). Both first need to reach the minimum threshold of ten seasons played in the Majors. Aaron Judge already has the upper hand here as he just signed a nine-year deal with the Yankees. No matter how much time he spends on the IL, as long as he steps foot on the field as a player in two more seasons, he will be eligible for the HOF. As for Cody Bellinger, it’s a lot more difficult than having a cushy extension, since he’s on a $12M dollar one-year deal with the Cubs that has a mutual option for 2024. Cody may trigger that option, and the Cubs would be smart to do so on their end as it’d only cost them another $12M dollars to keep him on the team, rather than pay him $5.5M dollars to buyout his option. Cody could, of course, decide to not trigger this option, and test the free agency waters for a much longer contract, or even work out an extension with the Cubs for something that goes past 2024. My point here being is that Cody must find himself on the field for at least three more seasons to even be eligible for the HOF, since he debuted a year after Judge. With eligibility dilemma out of the way, let’s move on forward to individual numbers and cases.
Cody Bellinger debuted with the Los Angeles Dodgers at the age of 21 in 2017, playing a more or less full season of 132 Games, even getting an All Star nod. He also walked away with the NL ROY award after the 2017 season as he launched 39 Home runs, and drove in 97 Runs, along with finishing in the top 10 for MVP voting. Everything seemed fine for the budding Outfielder, grabbing another All Star nod and the NL MVP in 2019 as well as a Silver Slugger and Gold Glove award to boot. Then, in 2020, the ultimate achievement was reached (albeit in a 60-game, shortened season), the Los Angeles Dodgers won the World Series, taking home the trophy that they had been long working for. Whether it was a post-world series hangover or something else, Bellinger dropped off a cliff in 2021 and subsequently 2022, before finding his stride after being let go by the Dodgers, and brought over to the Cubs. All in all, he sits at an rWAR of 21.4 over 826 games, many of which if he were like his 2017-2020 self, would be a little closer to 25-30. What Bellinger has in his favor over Judge is age, he being only barely 28 and Judge being 31 years old (yes, Judge is older than Bryce Harper, we’ll get to that in a moment). If Cody finds himself a long-term home where he can become HOF eligible, and he reignites the flame from his earlier years (since he technically hasn’t even reached his ‘peak’ in terms of physicality), he may have a chance at the HOF. But in all honesty, I’m putting him in the “Hall Of Really Good” until I see the stars align for Belly as far as a contract, and numbers pick up. Even if he were to get, say a 3-year or even 5-year deal in the offseason, I don’t see him breaking 2,500 Hits, 300 Doubles or even being close to a career .300 average (which currently sits at .256), along with many of the other “Average Hall of Fame Player” milestones. Even in the OPS and OPS+ categories, Cody would need to find a bit of a second wind to reach the average HOF numbers, and sustain them for several years.
Now to the most interesting of them all, Aaron Judge. At 31 years old, sandwiched right between Bryce Harper and Mike Trout as far as age, he didn’t debut until age 24, already three years behind the “Average HOF Player”, so this instantly means he’ll either have to put up crazy numbers for the length of his contract which runs through his age-39 season, which we’ve seen that he can (see 63 Home runs in a single season), or play into his 40’s with good or above average numbers. Off the bat, with the insane 2022 season that he had, it helped launch his rWAR to 39.4, along with years like 2017 (52 HR), and 2021 (39 HR). The power numbers alone will easily carry Judge to the “Hall Of Really Good” as he’s already sitting on 240 Home runs and 540 RBI. He also has a great .280 Average and scary .980 OPS to give him an OPS+ of 164 in just seven seasons. The worry with Judge besides his age is his durability. He barely played over 100 Games in both 2018 and 2019. He got back on track in 2021, playing in 148 Games followed by 157 in 2022. But for those keeping tabs, he’s already missed a chunk of time this season, which doesn’t bode well for either Yankee fans, or those watching his trajectory towards the Hall Of Fame. He has the 2017 AL ROY award along with five All Star nods, three Silver Sluggers, and is the reigning AL MVP. All of these awards, sans a World Series ring, help his case in getting into the HOF down the line. Even though it’s not a for sure thing, I’d say that Judge currently sits in a better position to make the Hall over Bellinger just simply due to a guaranteed contract, much higher WAR in just one more season played, and the monstrous power numbers that will carry him, if they continue. They both are plagued by injury and inconsistency, but not Judge as much as Bellinger. Judge needs the next several years to be consistent and healthy, seeing as he’s already in the “peak” age of his career (30-32 years of age). If Aaron Judge can put up decent, or even “normal” numbers from now until the end of his contract, I don’t see any issue with a committee putting him into the HOF later on.
