One year ago, the Minnesota Twins and Miami Marlins finalized a trade that myself and many other writers dove into, wondering who would come out on top in the end. What was the entire trade, you might ask? Pablo Lopez, who had a 3.94 ERA in 510 Innings over 94 Games Started with Miami along with highly regarded prospects INF Jose Salas and OF Byron Chourio for Infielder Luis Arraez who had a .314 Batting Average with 77 Doubles and 132 Walks in 389 Games played for the Twins, coming off the heels of an All-Star and Silver Slugger season. During the slow period of the offseason, we can look back at this and see who won or lost this trade, if anyone.
To start with the prospects, Salas and Chourio, both highly regarded going into this trade, took a step back in their offense. Salas at Shorstop had hit .305 in 2021 and .250 in 2022, but dropped to a paltry .188 Average in ’23 over 95 Games, with the majority of those in High-A; his power also dipped with extra-base hits down across the board from the year before as far as Doubles, Triples, and Homeruns. Walks and Stolen Bases were down, and Strikeouts were up. Moving on to Chourio, his offense also dipped, but he moved from Dominican Summer League to Florida Complex League with the Twins here in the States where he played less than half the Games than in 2022 at only 24 total Games. While he hit .344 in the Dominican in over 50 Games, he only hit .262 in 24 Games at a different level, we can’t tell much as far as power goes since he had a lot smaller sample size once he came to the United States to play. Jose Salas and Byron Chourio still sit in the top 30 prospects for the Twins at #17 and #26 respectively.
As far as Lopez goes, he had the best season of his life, starting 32 Games with his first complete game shutout of his career, an 11-8 record, the best of his career in a full season along with a 3.66 ERA and the first All-Star appearance of his career. He nearly threw 200 Innings, just 6 shy of the mark, 234 Strikeouts which were both career highs, but gave up the most homers in his career with 24. He was also top 10 in Cy Young voting for the American League and had an ERA+ of 117 which beat out his 109 ERA+ from 2022 in Miami over the same amount of Games Started. He was a key piece in helping the Twins go to the playoffs in 2023.
Moving to Arraez, he improved on his All-Star 2022 season by having another All-Star appearance and getting another Silver Slugger Award, but improved on his offense. He put up a .316/.375/.420 slash line in 2022 with an OPS+ of 128, then a .354/.393/.469 slash line in 2023 with an OPS+ of 133 while grabbing a batting title just because he can. He had career highs in Triples, Homeruns, and RBIs while having more Walks (35) than Strikeouts (34). Luis Arraez ALSO was in the top 10 for MVP voting last season as well. While in Minnesota, he found himself playing all over the diamond, but solidified his position as a 2B for Miami and helped them get to the playoffs while filling in at 1B and DH from time to time in 2023.
Both key pieces in the trade were All-Stars in 2023, improved on their previous season in multiple ways, were top 10 in MVP voting, and went to the playoffs. Both prospects who went to Minnesota have dropped off, but are young and have time to improve. One year later, I would personally say that both teams won, as both teams made the playoffs and both players thrived on their new teams. It’ll be in the front offices where the trade will be won, where I say the Twins have a head start, giving Lopez a 4-year, $73.5M deal to buy out the last year of Arbitration and first three years of Free Agency. The Marlins still have two years of Arbitration with Arraez before he becomes a Free Agent after the 2025 season, so they have time to give him an extension.
