2023 MLB Draft First Round Review

We’ll be seeing some history made in the MLB Draft this year. Dylan Crews of LSU is looking to break Spencer Torkelson’s $8.2M signing bonus record, rumored to be asking for $10M from teams. We’ll also be seeing the new “Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick” that was added in the new CBA, which will go to a team who decides to promote top prospects early in a season, as well as win the Rookie of the Year award the year before; That means that the Seattle Mariners will be rewarded for bringing up Julio Rodriguez up early in 2022, who was a runaway ROY winner, this gives Seattle three first round picks (22, 29, and 30). Below are the 2023 MLB Draft first round picks, with a quick breakdown of the player who was drafted. A lot of these players will be found in 2023’s Bowman Draft product, or 2024’s Bowman with their Bowman 1st cards.

• 1. Pittsburgh Pirates – Paul Skenes (LSU), RHP. Paul Skenes is arguably the best Pitcher in the MLB Draft since Gerrit Cole or Steven Strasburg, hence the number one pick overall. This is not the player that a lot of people had Pittsburgh going with, as they need Outfielders in their farm system, so Langford and Crews were rumored to go number one. But, sometimes, you just go with what you can get. Skenes has toyed with the idea of being a two-way player, but seems to have settled on being a Pitcher, but it is food for thought. His fastball rates an 80 (on a scale of 20-80), with 70 slider, 50 changeup, and 55 on control. Most teams wait until pitchers have their control at around at least 55-60 to bring them up to the majors, so Skenes could be MLB material by 2024.
• 2. Washington Nationals – Dylan Crews (LSU), OF. Seeing Crews and Skenes, teammates at LSU, go back-to-back, is not a surprise, but also makes history as they are the first to do it. I had this in my own personal mock draft, but flipped. Last minute rumors of Crews wanting a record breaking $10M signing bonus, along with other factors, may have had the Pirates choosing Skenes over Crews. Word is, Crews is looking forward to play in our nations capitol, so I have a feeling that the Nationals and Crews camps have been talking numbers in recent days. Dylan Crews is considered to be one of the best players in LSU history, but was probably out of the Pirates price range, hence the way these first two picks shook out. As for his performance, he rates as an above average to All Star-type of player in the near future.
• 3. Detroit Tigers – Max Clark (Franklin Community HS), OF. Clark is ranked #2 overall in the nation by Perfect Game, and #1 in his state of Indiana. He currently has a commitment to Vanderbilt, so we’ll see if that gets in the way of a possible $8-9M signing bonus. He is often compared to Corbin Carroll of Arizona, having a smooth lefty swing with a little lift. He also seems to be a 5-tool kid who will only get better as far as his top tier defense as he gets develops.
• 4. Texas Rangers – Wyatt Langford (Florida), OF. This is three Outfielders in a row, after a Pitcher took the number one spot. We’re waiting for the first infielders and catcher to be picked. Texas has the means to develop him into a monster bat who could join Adolis Garcia in the outfield. Although Langford is being drafted as an outfielder, he does have the ability to be a Catcher or a Firstbaseman as his arm, fielding, and speed rate as average to slightly above average and don’t look to develop much beyond that. Langford was on a lot of professionals and fans mock drafts going number one overall to the Pirates, so he slid down a couple of spots, losing some money in his possible signing bonus.
• 5. Minnesota Twins – Walker Jenkins (South Brunswick HS), OF. Another outfielder, the infielders should be coming off the board soon. Another lefty, like Clark, has an explosive swing, with comps of Matt Olson. He also has the ability to become a top Center fielder with an above average arm and good glove. He already has the raw power to show, the Twins just need to develop his hit tool a little bit so he can harness that power.
• 6. Oakland Athletics – Jacob Wilson (Grand Canyon), SS. A top infielder prospect, son of former MLB player and All Star, Jack Wilson, he has elite bat to ball skills with little raw power. The floor for Wilson is high, and the hope is that Wilson gains the power over the next few years. His hands are smooth and fast, defense being his top asset. Our first infielder off the board, and just about as much of a sure thing as you can get. Definitely a safe pick by the A’s.
• 7. Cincinnati Reds – Rhett Lowder (Wake Forest), RHP. Rhett’s stock kept rising, and rising as the season went on. He started off as a top 15 or 20 prospect, but his changeup and slider only became one of the best in college. He put up ridiculous numbers, such as a whiff rate of 42% in 2023 with the use of his full arsenal. He is closely compared to Reid Detmers of the Angels, where he could be in the Majors as a three or four in the rotation for Cincinnati as soon as 2024. The Reds are pushing to make the postseason this year, and possibly even next.
• 8. Kansas City Royals – Blake Mitchell (Sinton HS) C. Blake is the first two-way player in the Draft who can not only hit 98 on the radar gun, but then sit behind plate and catch the guy after him. Whether or not this is what happens is to be seen, as he is still so young. Mitchell is ranked the number 1 high school Catcher in the nation by Perfect Game, and number 8 high school prospect overall. Where he lacks in speed, he makes up for in his hit and power tools, as well as elite arm (as a catcher or pitcher).
• 9. Colorado Rockies – Chase Dollander (Tennessee), RHP. If it weren’t for Skenes, Chase would be the highest college arm on this board, but the College World Series did a lot to both of their stock. With some work, Dollander’s ceiling could be as high as the Rockie’s Ace or number 2. He could also be used out of the bullpen in a year or so with a fastball that hits triple digits regularly as it grades a 70 right now. His changeup, slider, and curveball are nothing to sneeze at, either. The control of his arsenal is where the problems lie.
• 10. Miami Marlins – Noble Meyer (Jesuit HS), RHP. Noble is all about that heat, already throwing 100MPH at just 18-years old. Committed to Oregon, the way that the Marlins are going, I highly doubt that they will have any trouble getting past that and signing him. He’s got an above average slider along with a changeup to go with his fastball, but needs work on his overall control.
• 11. Los Angeles Angels – Nolan Schanuel (Florida Atlantic), 1B. Nolan has low strikeout numbers, with more extra-base hits than strikeouts in his college career. Not a ton of power, but the team hopes that he will grow into his frame and gain a little bit of power. The Angels may be looking to replace Jared Walsh in the near future, their current lefty firstbaseman who has been dealing with health issues after being a 2021 All Star. The Angels have not been shy about calling up their young talent, with O’Hoppe being on their 2023 Opening Day roster and 2022 first round pick Zach Neto being called up early on in the season to cover shortstop everyday until he was injured. Schanuel could be in Anaheim as soon as 2024. He possesses the above average hit tool and slightly above average power that they would seek from an everyday firstbaseman.
• 12. Arizona Diamondbacks – Tommy Troy (Stanford), 3B. Easily one of the best bats in the draft, with easy power that comes from an average/small frame at 5’10. At Stanford, seeing 48 pitches that were 95MPH or higher, he had NO strikeouts. The kid can put the bat on the ball, and the ball pretty far. Sometimes playing at shortstop, most see Troy as a thirdbaseman.
• 13. Chicago Cubs – Matt Shaw (Maryland) 2B. The Red Sox were reportedly high on Matthew Shaw, but the Cubs swooped in and picked him just before Boston got their chance. Shaw has a 40 inch vertical leap, and the frame for a football player. If you leave a fastball over the plate, he will punish you, forget about him on the bases, he will steal on you. He hit .341 with 24HR in 2023. His future hit and power tools are slightly above average, but looks to be an average infielder at best as far as glove and arm. The kicker is his well above average speed.
• 14. Boston Red Sox – Kyle Teel (Virginia), C. Only the second Catcher to be picked so far in the first round, Teel is a tall and lanky left-handed solid hitter with less than impressive power. Standing at 6’1 and 190lbs, it’ll be about average and not dingers for Kyle in the pros, as well as defense. He needs to quiet his swing as far as head movement, but once that’s fixed, he’ll have an elite swing that may bump up his power slightly. What’s nice is he seems to have the advanced ability to put the ball wherever he wants. He will also need to bulk up if he wants to stick as a Catcher, but as a left-handed hitter, he could possibly stick and change positions.
• 15. Chicago White Sox – Jacob Gonzalez (Ole Miss), SS. The bad season that Ole Miss had, unfortunately, hurt Gonzalez’s stock. A college bat with some pull-side power and the ability to be an everyday shortstop should get you in the top 10 at the MLB Draft most years. There’s no question about his defense, or his grit as he played football in high school as well. Jacob may fit in the Tim Anderson mold, with a bit more power.
• 16. San Francisco Giants – Bryce Eldridge (James Madison HS), RHP. Our first announced two-way player in the Draft, Eldridge is most likely to stay as a Pitcher, but grades as an average firstbaseman as well. With a 6’7 frame and 97MPH Fastball, Bryce has noted Shohei Ohtani as inspiration to staying on both sides of the plate. He hit .342 from the left side this last Spring, showing that he is more than capable of being either a pitcher or hitter, or possible even both in the future. This is the Giants second two-way player whom they’ve drafted in two years.
• 17. Baltimore Orioles – Enrique Bradfield Jr. (Vanderbilt), OF. Speed, that’s the first thing you think of when you think of Bradfield Jr. This speed not only allows him to grab bases like no tomorrow, but give him elite jumps in the outfield. He lacks plate discipline, chasing first pitches often, but still manages to walk; he also has slightly below average power for his age. He projects to be an elite defensive center fielder, with an average arm. One thing EBJ definitely doesn’t lack in is the confidence, which may just be that “x factor” which takes him from the minors to the majors.
• 18. Milwaukee Brewers – Brock Wilken (Wake Forest), 3B. Brock is the second Wake Forest pick of the first round, and he oozes leadership material. His sweetspot is middle-away and middle-middle. He compares with Pete Alonso as far as the route as he took, not being signed in 2020 after a shortened season, and choosing to go to college for three years, beginning to launch nukes. He still has a hole in his swing, but hopefully the Brewers can help him erase that and he can catch up with the curveball. He has well below speed, but enough to play serviceable thirdbase, with average defense and a well above average arm. First is his only realistic fallback, even though he did catch in high school, he’s too big for the position now and doesn’t have the tools to play there in pro ball.
• 19. Tampa Bay Rays – Brayden Taylor (TCU), 3B. Brayden is probably the youngest looking 21-year old, and has plenty of frame to fill out. He’s the all-time leader in homeruns at TCU, and will only become stronger. Again, another top prospect who could’ve gone in the top 10, but slipped down to the Rays. The Rays definitely got a steal here. Standing 6’1, and 180, he has major pull-side power to RF from the left side. He had top 5% barrel percentage in all of college, so if he adds some muscle to that tall frame, he can stick to 3B as the Rays obviously have Wander Franco at SS for a while. It’s not hard to see Brayden in a Rays uniform and in the Majors in two or three years.
• 20. Toronto Blue Jays – Arjun Nimmala (Strawberry Crest HS), SS. Arjun is a Correa/Baez type of shortstop with more power than most middle infielders. His swing from the left side is absolutely beautiful. He even trains with Francisco Lindor in the offseason. He has a slightly above average hit tool currently, to go with his above average power and arm. If he develops as expected, seeing as he’s only 17, this could be a future Jays All Star. Quiet hands, quick swing, there’s major power that can be tapped. The organization has time to develop Arjun, so don’t expect him to be at the major league level for several years unless he forces their hand.
• 21. St. Louis Cardinals – Chase Davis (Arizona), OF. Chase has that swagger that everyone loves right now. If you remember Carlos Gonzalez, or “CarGo”, he has an almost identical swing, and homerun walk off. A 2023 Golden Spikes Award winner, Davis struggled as a Freshman, but put it together and is now a first round pick. He hit his way to the first round in 2023 with a .362 Average, 21HR, and 74RBI. Scouts still grade his hit tool as slightly above average, but notice his above average power and speed as well as arm in the outfield.
• 22. Seattle Mariners – Colt Emerson (Glenn HS), SS. Left-handed hitters is the trend here in these last several picks, dominating them. Following Taylor and Nimmala, Emerson is another smooth swinging lefty. Perfect Game has him ranked as the number 4 high school shortstop in the nation and 14th overall HS prospect. Hitting .407 in PG events probably doesn’t hurt that ranking, along with having smooth hands up the middle. Almost 18 years old, he may choose to switch over to second base if J.P. Crawford stays at shortstop in the future, and how quickly he ascends in the Mariners farm.
• 23. Cleveland Guardians – Ralphy Velazquez (Huntington Beach HS), C. Starting with the bad, Ralphy doesn’t have the defensive track record for being a good major league catcher, so first may be his landing spot. Now with the good news, he has an amazing hit tool, and is far advanced beyond his high school years. If he can catch, become better, then it works out. If he can’t, then he’s a Schwarber-type player in the future.
• 24. Atlanta Braves – Hurston Waldrep (Florida), RHP. Seeing a college pitcher who has a splitter/knuckleball/screwball (it looks different each time), slider and fastball like Waldrep this far in the first round is interesting. He may become a bullpen specialty pitcher who can be in the majors as soon as August or September. His ceiling is low, or medium, depending on how you see Dan Haren’s best years. His fastball tops at around 99MPH. The downside, and reason as to why he probably slipped this far, is his lack of control on his pitches.
• 25. San Diego Padres – Dillon Head (Homewood Flossmoor HS), OF. Dillon is a piece to help fill the lacking outfield of San Diego’s farm system. Head has insane speed coming out of high school, with above average hit but little power that may advance as he gets older and fills out his frame and gains muscle. He also has an above average arm in the outfield with plus-plus fielding. It’s doubtful that he’ll ever hit 20+ homers in a season at the major league level, but he’ll definitely be a serviceable if not top tier center fielder.
• 26. New York Yankees – George Lombard Jr. (Gulliver Prep HS), SS. Lombard hasn’t committed his life to baseball, playing soccer and other sports as well. This has given him the ability to make a quick first move at his position, and as a bigger high school player at 6’3, power comes easy to him. He has a plus arm and above average fielding as well as a good hit tool. Will the bright lights of New York be a problem for him is the question. He is, to answer your question, the son of George Lombard, bench coach for the Detroit Tigers.
• 27.Philadelphia Phillies – Aidan Miller (Mitchell HS), 3B. Aidan comes out of high school at 6’2 and 205, and already 19-years old. He has the frame and weight for the position that the Phillies want him at, and he can play a little bit of shortstop. His swing is more brute power than finesse, much like a Josh Donaldson. He broke his hamate bone earlier in the year, and along with being an older high schooler, these facts dropped Miller from the top 15-20 area to 27 and Philadelphia. Obviously, with Bohm holding down the thirdbase position daily, Miller won’t be pushed to make the majors in a hurry.
• 28. Houston Astros – Brice Matthews (Nebraska), SS. Brice Matthews is a combination of power and speed, but probably doesn’t have the glove to stick at short, and is most likely moving to second base. Third base is also a possibility, as he has the arm for it, but he doesn’t have an above average glove (And the team has Bregman). There’s not much else to say here as Matthews is really only here for his bat and speed, and not much else screams “look at me!”.

Prospect Promotion Incentive Pick

• 29. Seattle Mariners – Jonny Farmelo (Westfield HS), OF. The Mariners are sticking with the young bats here, and Farmelo is a young, sneaky power hitter who can play right and center. The bat is for real on the left side, and there is high upside. He can be an everyday player who brings big homerun power. Now that Seattle has chosen a middle infielder and an outfielder, I’m not sure what they’ll choose next. All we know is that Seattle’s farm system is starting to look stacked.

Competitive Balance Round A

• 30. Seattle Mariners – Tai Peete (Trinity Christian HS), SS. Another SS for Seattle. I have to think that Seattle is very happy with this first round, picking off a lot of the young best talent and tools, even if they’re raw. They understand that they weren’t going to get college bats that could bring developed swings, so they’re just going to develop the players themselves. Peete already has a smooth and short swing to the ball as a lefty, which is always a good thing. Some of these names could also be future trade bait, so keep that in mind. Tai already brings an above average set of tools as far as hitting and fielding, as well as well above average speed.
• 31. Tampa Bay Rays – Adrian Santana (Doral Academy HS), SS. Adrian has a single tool that can’t be taught, speed. He already grades at an 80 on the scale (80 being the highest), and also has a very good arm at short, with a very good glove. Tampa Bay has developed some good middle infielders, so Santana is in good hands if he signs with the Rays, as he has just slightly above average hit tool and average power (at 17 years old). Oh, and he’s also a switch-hitter, so that’s a plus. His brother was a 15th round pick by the Brewers in 2017, so baseball runs in the family.
• 32. New York Mets – Colin Houck (Parkview HS), SS. The Mets are our first tax luxury pick, having their first pick drop this far down, going with the third shorstop in the last four picks. Colin played baseball, and football as quarterback. He grades average to above average in most categories, and looks a lot like Evan Longoria. Being their only first round pick, the Mets have the option of overpaying Houck to lock him in (which I can see them doing, easily). His hit and power grade well currently, and he has an advanced swing for his age. Houck is a surprisingly good pick for this far in the first round.
• 33. Milwaukee Brewers – Josh Knoth (Patchogue-Medford HS), RHP. The first pitcher picked since Waldrep at 24, Knoth has an advanced fastball-curveball mix for his age, with an average changeup. In Spring, he had a 93:4 K to Walk ratio, which is insanely good. The control and speed, along with extra offspeed pitches such as a slider or splitter will come with age and development. His curve has plus break and spin rate, so he could also become a bullpen piece. Matt Brash is the best comp to Knoth at this point.
• 34. Minnesota Twins – Charlee Soto (Reborn Christian HS), RHP. Charlee makes this our first back-to-back pitcher in the first round of this year, and second high schooler as well. Soto is 6’5, 210lbs and is only 17 years old. He’s already got the height for that possible starting pitcher spot, but may need to bulk up just a touch. He already has an advance 1-2 with the fastball and curveball just like Knoth (I wouldn’t be surprised if Knoth was who Minnesota wanted initially). He’s spent some time in the Dominican Republic to train, and work on his stuff. He grades above average or slightly above average in his fastball, slider, and change, as well as his control (which is quite impressive for his age).
• 35. Miami Marlins – Thomas White (Phillips Academy HS) LHP. Thomas comes into the draft as the 2023 Gatorade Player of the Year at 6’5 and 210. He has a commitment to Vanderbilt, and I’m surprised that he went so late in the first round. He was considered the best prospect of his class by the age of 14, already throwing 90-plus. He grades average to above average in the fastball, curveball, changeup, and control areas, just like Soto before him; He now has the distinction of being the first high school LHP from Massachusetts to be drafted in the first round.
• 36. Los Angeles Dodgers – Kendall George (Atascocita HS), OF. The Dodgers are our second tax luxury pick, having their first pick drop this far down, going with Kendall George, an Arkansas commit who has 80-grade speed. He’s also got an advanced bat for his age, but definitely will need some development at the plate to become an elite hitter. He lacks in the power department, unfortunately, but makes up for it with an average arm and well above average defense. The Dodgers are known for their drafting and developing, as we’ve seen in the past several years, so he’s in good hands.
• 37. Detroit Tigers – Kevin McGonigle (Monsignor Bonner HS), SS. A top Perfect Game prospect, Kevin is an elite lefty hitter for his age. He’ll hit it everwhere, but hasn’t shown the elite power just yet. He will most likely slide over to second later on in the future. Brandon Lowe and Kevin McGonigle, that’s your best comp with this pick. Barreling that ball up, hitting it up the middle, high average over homers.
• 38. Cincinnati Reds – Ty Floyd (LSU), RHP. The second RHP from LSU to be drafted in the first round, Ty has a well above average fastball, and above average slider. He has good secondary pitches in the change and curve as well. The Reds are making a statement, going with Rhett Lowder and Ty Floyd in the first round, carving out their future pitching staff. Either or both could help with the 2023 or ’24 rotation or bullpen. It’s a great day for the LSU baseball program and Reds fan base.
• 39. Oakland Athletics – Myles Naylor (St. Joan of Arc HS), 3B. The third Naylor brother, behind Josh and Bo, Myles follows both of them to complete the hat trick of first rounders. He’s drafted as a thirdbasemen, as his ability to be a shortstop are in question, even with well above average arm and glove tools. His hit tool is lagging behind the other top high school prospects, but when he does make contact, he can hit the ball far.