You’ve heard the player names, seen the graphics, but I want to dive into another side of these men. One little fact that ties MOST of them together, and may be the reason that they STILL haven’t found a home yet, halfway into February.
The Lone Ranger – Jordan Montgomery
The 31-year old Starting Pitcher who’s coming off of a World Series Championship with the Texas Rangers is the exception to the rule in my piece, here. He’s also ranked the #1 Free Agent by FanGraphs, due to his 2023 production, the fact that he does not have a Qualifying Offer attached to him, and he’s still quite young at 31 year old. Rangers GM Chris Young has all but ruled out a Rangers-Montgomery reunion, so it’s safe to say that Jordan won’t be coming back to the Rangers before Opening Day. It’s a good thing that he’s gotten used to changing uniforms, isn’t it? Having spent his entire pro career with the New York Yankees until 2022, when he was traded to the St. Louis Cardinals, he was only with the Cardinals for a full season’s worth of games before being flipped to Texas at the trade deadline in 2023 where he had a stellar 2.79 ERA over 11 Starts in the regular season. He ultimately went 10-11 with a 3.20 ERA over 32 Starts between the Cards and Rangers, while throwing just over 188 Innings and striking out 166 Batters in the 2023 regular season. That’s not bad at all for someone looking for a job in a pitching starved market. And you can’t say he only performs in the regular season, as he’s got Postseason experience with all three teams he’s been on. He basically started the Texas Rangers miracle 7-0 start after throwing seven scoreless innings in the 2023 Wild Card. He was unbeaten in the 2023 Postseason until his sixth appearance, Game 2 of the World Series where he threw six innings and gave up four runs, in the end he finished with a 3-1 record and 2.90 ERA over 31 Innings in the Rangers’ Championship run. Why teams aren’t clamoring to add this man to their rotation is a real wonder, honestly. Is he hurt? Does he have bad representation? Or is his asking price simply too high? It’s been reported that he is asking for $20-25M a year, and the southpaw is asking for some stability in a range of 5 years, which could’ve been met by the Rangers. Big market teams who can possibly reach these numbers are the Mets, Phillies, and of course the Yankees. Teams who have been very loosely tied to Montgomery are the Angels and Giants, but those would be long shots due to recent signings and ownership restrictions on payroll. One thing we do know is that Jordan would like to stay in Arlington, but can the two sides reach a compromise?
The Three Stooges(?) – Blake Snell, Cody Bellinger, and Matt Chapman
Ian Fleming, the well known writer of the books that inspired the multi-billion dollar James Bond franchise films and more once said “Once is happenstance. Twice is a coincidence. Three times is enemy action.” And there is no denying that it is, in baseball terms, “enemy action” that these three award winning, all star winning players all happen to be represented by the same person. Scott Boras of the Boras Corporation. Scott Boras is well known and much disliked by front offices across the country. He is known to have his players go to Free Agency to test the market and get the largest contracts that they can, shying away from extensions (although they do happen from time to time). Another thing that ties these three together is the fact that their previous team gave them a $20.3M Qualifying Offer once they all became Free Agents to test the waters. This means that any team who signs any of these Free Agents have to give up a Draft Pick, that is, unless, under the current rules “Players who are unsigned after the start of the MLB Draft in the year that follows the rejection of their qualifying offer are no longer tied to Draft pick compensation and can be signed without their new club needing to forfeit a Draft pick.” But I don’t see any of these three going unsigned until July.
Last year, Scott Boras helped Cody Bellinger get up on his feet again and sign a 2-year deal with the Chicago Cubs, with a Player Option that was obviously going to be triggered, if he did well in 2023. And he triggered that Option after the end of the ’23 World Series, receiving the $20.3M Qualifying Offer that ties him to a Draft Pick. He played in 130 Games, had more Plate Appearances than he did in the last three seasons, hit .307 while driving in 97 Runs and launching 26HR and having 153 Hits, the second most in his career. He might’ve been better off sticking with the Cubs for 2024 and trying to work out an extension, as it seems nobody is really taking his 2023 NL Comeback Player of the year award too serious. Marcus Stroman has been hyping him up on social media, wanting the Yankees to bring him to the Bronx, and there’s still a lot of hope that he’ll re-sign with the Cubs, but on a longer and more expensive deal. Most experts having him in the $20M+ range, and getting 5+ years. But can Chicago afford that much money on just one player? And will Cody play like he did for in 2023 for an extended amount of time, or will the dreaded 2020-22 years come back? Cody’s a wildcard that is too high risk for a lot of ball clubs, but he’s also a powerful Lefty who can play elite Centerfield and 1B if needed.
In March of 2022, the A’s packaged Matt Chapman along with three other players in a trade with the Blue Jays for four pitching prospects. He ultimately signed a 2-year deal for $25M that bought out the rest of his Arbitration years with the Blue Jays, so he could test Free Agency in 2024. This has not worked out all that great for Matt. He is still an elite defensive Third Baseman, as his 2023 Gold Glove award shows, but his offense has taken a dip from even his 2022 numbers, and he just turned 30. Over 140 Games in 2023 Matt Chapman matched his career Batting Average of .240, had the second lowest amount of Walks in a full season with 62, all while only hitting 17 HR and driving in 54 Runs. This doesn’t bode well for a first time Free Agent, coming off of some career lows. It seemed like the Blue Jays easily moved on, signing Justin Turner and being in talks with J.D. Martinez throughout the offseason, the Giants also have been tied to Chapman, but their DH spot has now been filled with Jorge Soler. What team is hurting for a DH/3B at the moment? At the end of January, the San Francisco Chronicle had at least six teams tied to Chapman, but it looks like that may be whittled down to at least four, now. Cubs and Yankees are still possibilities, as they are relying on Nick Madrigal and Dj LeMahieu respectively at the hot corner as projected. If Matt’s price drops to a more manageable 2 years at $20M rather than the projected 4 years, or even have Club or Mutual Options after year 1 or 2, then he may be signed sooner rather than later.
Last, but not least, we have the reigning 2023 NL Cy Young Award winner, Blake Snell. Blake Snell is a tough one to figure out, as he’s made history, being one of a handful of pitcher win the Cy Young in both Leagues, yes his numbers seem to be erratic, an exception to the rule. He’s only Started 30 or more games in 2018 and 2023, both times he won the Cy Young, he also led the league in ERA those years, and threw 180 or more Innings. In every other season, six of them, he did not have double-digit Wins (although Wins are starting to lose their importance, some say) and his ERA was never lower than 3.20 in any of those seasons. In seven of his eight MLB seasons, Snell has had an ERA+ above 100 (league average) except for 2022, where it was at 92, or 8% lower than the league average; that’s still an okay pitcher. But is a team willing to gamble on a Pitcher who might be a Cy Young candidate and an All Star one year, but just okay the next? Especially at the asking price of 9 years and $270M? The almighty Yankees have reportedly only offered him 6 years and $150M, saying that they don’t think anyone else is worth more than their Ace in Gerrit Cole; he turned that down. If not the Yankees, then who else can afford Blake Snell? I know that the Angels have been loosely tied to him, but they are loosely tied to just about every big Free Agent, every year, so I don’t take much stock in that unless Arte Moreno opens up the wallet and overpays for him. The Mets or Phillies might be able to broker a deal with him, besides the Angels. But in the end, Snells’, as well as Bellingers’ and Chapman’s fates are very much up in the air.
