2026 MLB Draft: First Round Predictions vs. Reality

I come back from a long slumber of no writing on Major League Baseball, but today, July 11th, we have the first of two days for the MLB Draft — probably my favorite part of the season. Who gets the ace? The next superstar position player? And yes, I'll say it: we're still looking for the next true two-way player not named Shohei Ohtani to make it to the Majors and thrive.

Below, we'll look at the projected picks for the first round thanks to Keith Law, one of the most respected writers in all of baseball when it comes to prospects. We'll keep it simple for 2026: team name and projected pick, along with the actual pick once the names started rolling in, and see where things went astray. This covers the first round before compensation picks — twenty-five picks in all — where chaos was still in the air, even at 1-1.

• Chicago White Sox — Predicted: Grady Emerson, HS Shortstop. Actual: Roch Cholowsky, UCLA Shortstop. It seems the Sox wanted the 2026 Golden Spikes Award winner, who has the best chance to move through the Minors quickly and slide in at short right next to Colson Montgomery, who's been playing third more and more lately. Not a surprising choice by any stretch — the Sox still went with a shortstop at 1-1, but chose the more developed player. Emerson should still be a top-3 pick, maybe sliding to Tampa Bay or Minnesota. (Cholowsky was already a name to know heading into the draft — he landed on Baseball America's College Preview cover back in the spring, and the card companies were paying attention too, with early releases like this Baseball Nation autograph parallel and Leaf's announcement of it.)

• Tampa Bay Rays — Predicted: Vahn Lackey, College Catcher. Actual: Grady Emerson, High School Shortstop. The Rays chose possibly the best hit-tool player in the draft, college or high school. He has no tool lower than "above average," and if he surpasses their in-house shortstop Carson Williams, the Rays have a fantastic trade chip in Williams.

• Minnesota Twins — Predicted: Roch Cholowsky, College Shortstop. Actual: Vahn Lackey goes third here as a college catcher, since Roch and Grady were already gone. Extremely good hit, power, and athleticism tools. Joe Mauer is the last catcher the Twins took in the first round, so Lackey has a high bar set for him.

• San Francisco Giants — Predicted: Jacob Lombard (son of current Tigers bench coach George Lombard Sr.), HS Shortstop. Actual: Jackson Flora, the 6'5" righty from UC Santa Barbara, goes to the Bay Area with an elite fastball and wipeout slider that could see him in a Giants uniform as soon as this September out of the bullpen.

• Pittsburgh Pirates — Predicted: Jackson Flora, College RHP. Actual: Derek Curiel, the outfielder from LSU, joins the Pirates looking like a possible Bryan Reynolds backup or right fielder with Christian Yelich comps. A surprise pick, some may say, but money may be the deciding factor after big recent first-round picks.

• Kansas City Royals — Predicted: Drew Burress, College Outfielder. Actual: Zion Rose, another outfielder, jumps from the 20's down to six. Rose has some flaws that can be fixed, and KC may think they can get a discount here early on. If Zion makes it to the Majors, I see him as a left fielder with a decent hit tool.

• Baltimore Orioles — Predicted: Jared Grindlinger, HS two-way player (LHP and outfielder). Actual: Eric Booth Jr., one of the top-rated outfielders as far as defense, comes off the board in the top ten still needing to tweak his swing. Average arm, above-average glove, average-to-below-average bat, going to Baltimore for cheaper than a college guy. Don't expect to see Eric Booth Jr. anywhere near the Majors for a few years, unlike his college counterparts.

• Athletics — Predicted: Eric Booth Jr., HS Outfielder. Actual: Drew Burress, outfielder from Georgia Tech, goes to the Athletics. Not surprising given the power Drew possesses in college, going pole-to-pole — fits in with Kurtz and Wilson for the future Las Vegas Athletics young core. A college bat fits how the Athletics have been picking in recent years, and those picks have been working.

• Atlanta Braves — Predicted: Gio Rojas, HS LHP. Actual: AJ Gracia, a lefty college bat which is looked at as his premium tool, so expect him to move from center field to a corner position, or even possibly first base if that doesn't work out. Big guy at 6'3", so that'll play at any of those positions.

• Colorado Rockies — Predicted: Tyler Bell, College Shortstop. Actual: Tyler Bell, shortstop from Kentucky, a switch-hitter, will stick at short. Keith Law nailed this pick at 10. Tyler Bell has Jackson Merrill comps at the plate. We've only seen one pitcher and two high school players go in the top ten picks, which should start to change with the following pick.

• Washington Nationals — Predicted: Chris Hacopian, College SS/3B. Actual: Chris Hacopian, another college player, known for having a great eye and feel for the strike zone. He's not big now at Texas A&M, currently playing second base, but could possibly play third — and if not, left field is where he'll land, because the bat plays.

• Los Angeles Angels — Predicted: Justin Lebron, College Shortstop. Actual: Jared Grindlinger, a 17-year-old two-way player who was already pumping low-to-mid 90's as a lefty, but the Angels have decided to draft him as an outfielder. The hit tool is there, but with their GM of the last few years only recently fired, drafting him as an outfielder and not a two-way player is the safe play.

• St. Louis Cardinals — Predicted: Mason Edwards, College LHP. Actual: Trevor Condon, High School Player of the Year in Georgia for 2026, is an outfielder who comes in small — and that's not a joke, he walks in at five-foot-nine, hits lefty and throws righty. He has the legs and the arm for an outfielder, or a converted shortstop or third baseman.

• Miami Marlins — Predicted: Ryder Helfrick, College Catcher. Actual: Jacob Lombard, a shortstop standing at 6'3" out of Florida. He has a Bobby Witt swing. Good pick for both sides — baseball is in the family, with brother George Lombard Jr. drafted by the Yankees and father George Lombard drafted by the Braves.

• Arizona Diamondbacks — Predicted: Derek Curiel, College Outfielder. Actual: Arizona takes Ryder Helfrick, catcher from Arkansas, who already calls his own pitches and brings a power bat. He wasn't looked at as a first-round pick, but this is the chaos I wrote of earlier. We still hadn't seen a pitcher taken since Flora.

• Texas Rangers — Predicted: Taylor Rabe, College RHP. Actual: Gio Rojas, comped as a lefty Cole Hamels, coming out of Marjory Stoneman HS in Florida. Texas could have easily taken a college arm here, but they're known not to be afraid to draft and develop young arms. I believe the next several picks should be full of pitchers — Rojas is just the first domino.

• Houston Astros — Predicted: Liam Peterson, College RHP. Actual: Logan Hughes, a Texas Tech product who plays outfield. He comes in seventh all-time on Texas Tech's board in home runs, with 37 in his time there. A power bat who will probably land in a corner outfield spot.

• Cincinnati Reds — Predicted: Hunter Dietz, College LHP. Actual: Justin LeBron, a college shortstop with smooth hands and smooth transfers already, plus a line-drive swing. He comes with speed, an arm, and a good hit tool with growing power. A "best available player" pick, definitely.

• Cleveland Guardians — Predicted: Cameron Flukey, College RHP. Actual: Liam Peterson is another pitcher off the board, finally — a righty with a strong four-seam and slider out of Florida, with Nick Pivetta and Kevin Gausman comps. The Guardians didn't choose Flukey, but they stuck with the college RHP profile.

• Boston Red Sox — Predicted: Chase Brunson, College Outfielder. Actual: Jake Schaffner from North Carolina comes in as a shortstop with a good lefty swing. Schaffner is definitely a surprise pick at 20, being ranked by most in the 90's — a front-office pick that could be underslot for a guy with a lot of question marks as far as position. The bat, however, is undeniable.

• San Diego Padres — Predicted: Bo Lowrance, HS Third Baseman. Actual: Coleman Borthwick, a RHP out of South Walton HS who won Florida's Gatorade Player of the Year. He's technically a two-way player, but the upper-90's and occasional triple-digit fastball are the driving force behind this pick.

• Detroit Tigers — Predicted: Carson Boleman, HS LHP. Actual: Cameron Flukey, the righty from Coastal Carolina, is definitely the "best available pitcher" pick, and a smart one. Detroit is picking someone with a good, not great, fastball — a body and mind they can develop in the Minors. Behind the fastball, Flukey has a curve and change. He only had 24 innings pitched due to missing two months of the season with fractured ribs.

• Chicago Cubs — Predicted: Zion Rose, College Outfielder. Actual: Cade Townsend, a RHP who comes in at 6'1" from Mississippi with a mid-90's fastball. His slider and cutter make up nearly 50 percent of his usage, and he technically arrives in Chicago with 7+ pitches.

• Seattle Mariners — Predicted: Tegan Kuhns, College RHP. Actual: Ace Reese comes off the board just one pick earlier than Keith Law predicted, out of Mississippi State, where he hits balls far and plays third. He's raw at third, but that's probably his long-term home unless Seattle moves him to left field. No matter where he lands, pencil him in for the HR Derby in Minor League All-Star Games — and maybe future Major League All-Star Games.

• Milwaukee Brewers — Predicted: Ace Reese, College Third Baseman. Actual: Trey Ebel is the younger brother of Brady Ebel, their father being former MLB player Dino Ebel. Trey gets bragging rights being picked earlier, but joins Brady in the Milwaukee system, which is a fun touch. Trey plays shortstop and second base, stands six feet tall, and weighs in at 180 lbs.