If you haven’t already seen, the 2023 HR Derby in Seattle bracket has been set. We’ll be seeing Luis Robert Jr. (1) of the ChiSox go up against Adley Rutschman (8) of Baltimore, Pete Alonso (2) of the Big Apple go toe to toe with J-Rod (hometown representative and the 7 seed), Mookie Betts (3) of the Dodgers battle the struggling Vladimir Guerrero Jr. (6), and the surprise participant Adolis García (4) fighting off Randy Arozarena (5) of the Rays. Today, we’re going to break down each one of these players as far as power goes, and try to come up with a winner for the Derby.
The names listed are simply the starting bracket; we’ll work our way in to the Finals, picking a winner to end it all. The rules for the Derby are simple; Single-Elimination, and in each bracket, the higher seed hits second. In the first and second round, batters will have three minutes to hit. In the Final round, they will have two minutes. The clock starts with the release of the first pitch, and the round ends once the clock hits zero. A last second homer will count if the pitch was released before the timer ran out. The second batter of a round will stop hitting if their home run exceeds their opponents, as there is no need to continue adding to their tally in that round. In the first round, the winner of Robert-Rutschman will meet the winner of García-Arozarena. On the other side of the bracket, the winner of Alonso-Rodríguez will meet the winner of the Betts-Guerrero matchup. The two left standing will meet in the Final round. Each batter is given 30 seconds of extra time at the end of their regulation period of hitting. A hitter can gain an additional 30 seconds of extra time for a total of 60 seconds after their regulation period if they hit at least two home runs during regulation time that equal or exceed the distance of 440ft., using MLB’s Statcast. The bonus time period, whether it is 30 or 60 seconds, has no timeouts. The player is given a short break period between their regulation period and their bonus time. Each player can take a 45-second break during their regulation period of time, if needed.
Now, with all of the rules and regulations out of the way, let’s start with Robert-Rutschman showdown. Starting with the underdog, and eight seed, Adley Rutschman is at a major disadvantage when it comes to power. His Barrel %, Average EV (Exit Velocity), and Maximum EV on the year are all lower than his opponent, Luis Robert Jr. This means that even in a more nonchalant setting, he will not be hitting these baseballs as hard or barreling them up as often as his opponent. Both will be getting what amounts to batting practice 4-seam fastballs, and Luis Robert crushes Adley Rutschman in that department. With the build of T-Mobile park, Robert has the advantage, as well. What Adley has over Luis is the fact that he can hit from either side of the plate, and if he chooses to hit lefty, he can take advantage of T-Mobile’s shorter right field line, if he gets into a groove. On paper, this round goes to Luis Robert Jr.
Moving on to García-Arozarena, we have an interesting righty-righty battle. Both have average EV’s of over 92MPH (Arozerana hits a touch over 93MPH), but García has a Max EV of a touch over 115MPH while Arozarena has a Max EV of just over 114MPH. To put it in layman’s terms, these guys can smash the ball, moreso on average than Luis Robert Jr., even. Both of their swings are pull to the left field, with this year’s average home run distance in slight favor of García. At seed 4 and 5, this may turn out to be the most exciting matchup of the night. The numbers give this to García in the end, but just barely.
Moving on over to the right side of the bracket, we have the Alonso-Rodríguez battle first. If you watched last years HR Derby, Rodríguez kept Alonso from becoming the first three-time Derby champ since Ken Griffey Jr., so we’ll have to see if that happens again, or Alonso takes the crown once again. This is another righty-righty battle that may come down to pure adrenaline and who has a better tank. Alonso is just behind Rodríguez as far as average EV, but only by a few miles; He does, however have a better Max EV on a home run this season, and absolutely loves to pull left, with a season far home run of 448ft to left center. Julio Rodríguez on the other hand, has one of the furthest hit homers by anyone this season, to dead center, going 454ft. on a fastball down the middle in T-Mobile Park, where the Derby will take place. Both of these hitters should have no problem getting those extra 30 seconds with home runs that will reach 440ft or more. I say that this one goes the extra minute, with Rodríguez walking to the next round.
In the final head-to-head of the first round, I think we actually have the easiest choice. Mookie Betts is not one of the strongest hitters in the game, and probably the least strongest when it comes to Average EV and Max EV amongst the competitors. On the other hand, we have Vladimir Guerrero Jr. who is in the top 2% as far as Average EV AND Max EV, in all of baseball. Guerrero will not have a problem putting distance on the ball in this Derby, and will get the extra 30 seconds, easily putting two homers 440ft or further in Seattle. I know that not the strongest always wins these competitions, but usually. I have Guerrero winning this round, moving on.
To move things on a little quicker, I have the winner of Robert-García going to Luis, then Rodríguez-Guerrero going to Julio. In the Finals, Robert-Rodríguez, assuming that Luis hasn’t gassed himself, he could walk away with his first HR Derby crown. Julio Rodríguez may walk away with the furthest hit home run of the night, but I don’t think he’ll win the entire competition.
