We do a ton of random division breaks on DJAWN.COM each week. Recently, we did a random division break of a hobby box of 2021 Panini Contenders baseball. There are 6 divisions in Major League Baseball and 2021 Contenders comes with 6 autographs per hobby box.
What are your odds of getting an autograph in a 2021 Panini Contenders division break?
Let’s assume you purchased 1 division. If there were only 1 auto you would have a 1 in 6 chance (16.7%) of having the division with the auto. But because there’s 6 autos per box, and 6 x 1/6 = 1, you might think you have a 100% chance of getting an auto. However, we know that there’s a likely chance that 2 of the autos are from the same division, which means at least one person wouldn’t get an auto. That means it can’t be 100%.
So how do we calculate this?
First, we need to consider the probability of you not getting each auto, which is 5 out of 6, or 5/6. Then we do this 6 times (5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6 * 5/6) and subtract that probability from the probability of all possible outcomes, which is 100%, or 1. This gives us the probability of having your division get at least 1 auto.
Mathematically, it would look like this:
Odds = 1 – (5/6)6
This means, when buying into a division break of 2021 Panini Contenders, you have just over a 66.5% chance of getting at least 1 auto.
Math is not fun for a lot of people. But if you’re like me, when you’re using it for something like calculating your odds of a hit, it can be just interesting enough to make you want to brush up on your skills.
FYI – In our break, the NL East got 3 autos, the AL West got 2 autos, and instead of the 6th auto we got 150 Panini Points. 
